The 3.5% Rule
Hands Off Rally, Augusta, Maine. April 4, 2025.
There’s a not-so-secret statistic that’s going around the internet from Harvard’s Erica Chenoweth. Chenoweth studied hundreds of political movements throughout the 1900s - both violent and nonviolent - and in their Ted talk says that
“No single [nonviolent] campaign…failed after they achieved the active and sustained participation of just 3.5% of the population, and lots succeeded with less than that.”
That’s it. No superhero capes, no majority required. Just a stubborn fraction of folks who refuse to sit down.
Authoritarians count on one of two things: that folks will either panic or shrug in the face of the chaos and violence that they create. And then they use the subsequent slow and steady isolation of each person from the community to garner power: isolated individuals are easier to control and exploit than a united populace.
But here’s what Chenoweth teaches us: authoritarianism and fascism are not inevitable. Their research shows that:
At 3.5% participation, even risk-averse people join because they see friends, neighbors, and colleagues engaged in civil resistance.
Every person adds connections: That 3.5% includes teachers, cops, bureaucrats, even regime loyalists who start to quietly defect.
Sustained engagement is key: It’s not a one-time march but rather showing up week after week, like stacking wood for winter.
Maine Math: For our state of 1.4 million people, that’s 47,000 folks—roughly the crowd at ten Red Sox games. We can do this.
U.S. Math: For our country of about 342,000,000, that’s about 12 million folks.
Nationwide participation estimates for the April 5 protests vary widely but I’ve seen numbers as high as 3 million. Estimates are similarly hard to determine in Maine but protesters gathered from Wells to Lubec, with just the Augusta rally gathering over 3,000 people.
We’re still a ways off of that 3.5% number. If each person who attended an April 5 protest brought 4 folks with them to the next collective action on April 19, we’d be approaching Chenoweth’s inevitable tipping point.
Action item: Think about who your people are. How can you get them to join? How can you keep them engaged? (And should we talk about this in a blog post or newsletter?)
If these numbers sound intimidating, let’s talk precedent:
1980s: 3.5% of Mainers used nonviolent action to block nuclear waste dumping on the coast.
2021: Less than 3.5% killed the CMP corridor through relentless local actions. (Say what you will about the project and its current status but collective action is working.)
Chenoweth’s 3.5% rule works because visibility builds trust. I built The Spark Map to create digital visibility that folks can gather around.
While writing this blog post, I was working to get a fire started in our wood stove. I was irritatingly reminded that fires are hard to start. They require lots of attention, many sparks, lots of kindling, and time, but once they get going the warmth and light they provide is incredible.
All of this to say: stay stubborn and let the map show your strength. The regime is counting on our silence and disorganization. Let’s show them our sparks.
Now it’s your move:
Pin your first spot of hope on The Spark Map.
Watch the fire spread like ember to tinder—proof we’re not alone.
Pull in your circle bc when your cousin (the teacher) or your neighbor (the town clerk) sees you engaged, they’re more likely to join.
Repeat until the 3.5% tips.